Just a quick reminder for those of you who haven’t come across it before, the Uncle Jeff formula is my way of comparing results against last season, mapping progress or otherwise, producing a projected points target and showing how resilient or flaky we have been.
I had thought I was the only person who did this, but it seems not. When I started guesting on the West Ham podcast “Stop! Hammertime” I met Benji Lanyado. Benji has an Uncle Jeff who does exactly the same thing so this technique is therefore officially known as the Uncle Jeff Formula (UJF).
Comparing the 2024/25 and 2025/26 Campaigns
And statistically, the news isn’t as bad as I feared when comparing this year’s results against the corresponding games from 2024/25 – swapping relegated sides for Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland. We currently sit three points behind the total accrued from our same fixtures last term.
The most significant positive swings have come on the road, more recently at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Turning last year’s home-team dominance into a gritty 2-1 away victory gave us a +3 boost compared to the 4-1 drubbing in that slot last year.
Similarly, where we’d lost 3-0 at Nottingham Forest last season, we won by that same scoreline at the City Ground this campaign, giving us another +3 boost. The 3-1 wins over Newcastle and Sunderland at the London Stadium also improved upon results last campaign, giving us a combined +5 boost.
Away Day Struggles and Cancelled Gains
However, these gains have been cancelled out by struggles on the road. Last season we picked up three points at Arsenal, Brighton, Man United and Southampton but this season, swapping Sunderland in for the Saints, we have only picked up two points.
Arguably those draws against Albion and the Red Devils should have been three points. Then our home defeat to Fulham also saw a swing of three points compared to the same fixture last season.
The Mathematical Path to Premier League Safety
This brings us to the question: Can we still get the points required for survival? The positive news is that if the current squad can simply match the results achieved in the remaining games of the previous campaign, we will collect a further 23 points. Reaching that total would almost certainly ensure Premier League safety but can we do it?
We secured three points at home to Wolves and Manchester United last season, three on the road at St James’ Park, and three at home to Leicester, who are being replaced by Leeds. We also beat Ipswich on the road, replaced this campaign by Burnley, as well as Palace. There is an argument that if we’re going to get ourselves out of this mess, these are the games – minus Newcastle – that we’re most likely to pick up points from.
Crucial Fixtures and Final Projections
We also drew at Aston Villa, Brentford, Fulham and at home against Bournemouth and Everton last season. Arguably, we could improve on these results and maybe target victories in at least three of these.
I can’t see us picking up anything from our games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City. Albeit I did write us off against Spurs and Sunderland and we picked up six points from these games so who knows?! I feel like the path to safety is an achievable one. It won’t be pretty but I’m starting to feel more confident that it will be enough to live another day in the top flight.
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